Content warning: This post mentions the 2015 Carrickmines fire.
In part 1 of this two part post, I took a look at a lot of the context of the race, including how Casey’s comments on the travelling community were what helped him to gain the exposure necessary to become a viable candidate to many. There’s since been some further articles on the same theme, with Niamh Kirk and Liz Carolan both worth a read.
There has also been concern expressed by the travelling community that they are now going to be used as a punching bag for electoral purposes, a frequent occurrence within local election contexts but something which now may be a reality within national campaigns too. There has long been backslapping over the absence of a far-right party within the Irish electoral landscape (see here or here), and an under-examination of the fact that right wing policies, such as denial of citizenship to everyone born here or direct provision, have been implemented and sustained irregardless of who is in power.
The political conditions that have limited the growth of newer parties also makes Casey’s performance unlikely to lead to the ushering in of a new party, or the significant transformation of an existing one’s policies. Instead it seems like it will keep the “debate”, such as it is, about the travelling community to the forefront, with perhaps less of a tone of respectability. The same factors that saw The Irish Times run a poll on its website asking if residents were right to physically block the path of Carrickmines’ survivors are the ones that have produced Casey as a supposedly significant figure.
The analysis of polls or election results should not be divorced from the political context which produced them, and the interminable post-mortem of the 2016 US Presidential election is instructive in this regard. Analyses have purported to prove Trump was elected thanks to the intervention of James Comey, the support of the well off who are economically anxious about their children’s future and (naturally) those damn Russians. Less attention has been paid to voter suppression/purging, the merits or otherwise of Clinton and her campaign or the fact that Trump mostly relied upon the GOP’s usual voter base.
With this in mind, how should we interpret Casey’s vote? As explained in part 1, Casey did perform better in rural areas compared to urban ones, albeit still lagging significantly behind Michael D. Higgins. But with data at a constituency level a little too general to make observations, I have managed to get my hands on some tally data which might help. However tally data does suffer from being less accurate than official results, as well as giving a small sample size. It does offer a great deal of insights though, especially when cross compared to census data.
This election also saw very few places run a full tally, with the political class of Ireland thankfully having more pressing things to do of a Saturday morning, but two constituencies that ran close to a full tally were Louth and Dublin Central, with both being no more than .5% out for each candidate*. Serious regressions or other statistical analysis aren’t really possible given the size and homogeneity of the sample, but here are some select insights from both constituencies.
Dublin Central:
Table 1. Electoral divisions in Dublin Central, ranked by Casey %.
| Electoral Division | Casey | Duffy | Freeman | Gallagher | Higgins | Ni Riada | Spoilt |
| North City | 17.14% | 1.43% | 7.14% | 0.00% | 61.43% | 7.14% | 5.71% |
| Cabra East B | 15.07% | 1.23% | 5.24% | 2.54% | 60.69% | 12.78% | 2.46% |
| Cabra West D | 14.39% | 2.55% | 6.92% | 3.46% | 58.47% | 11.84% | 2.37% |
| Cabra West A | 13.87% | 1.76% | 6.05% | 4.49% | 53.71% | 18.16% | 1.95% |
| Ballybough A | 13.76% | 1.26% | 5.68% | 3.28% | 60.61% | 14.02% | 1.39% |
| Cabra West B | 13.42% | 0.99% | 5.65% | 4.66% | 47.74% | 26.13% | 1.41% |
| Cabra East C | 13.01% | 1.28% | 5.23% | 4.34% | 64.41% | 10.59% | 1.15% |
| Drumcondra South B | 13.00% | 1.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 67.00% | 8.50% | 2.00% |
| Cabra East A | 12.39% | 1.44% | 4.79% | 2.62% | 70.43% | 6.23% | 2.10% |
| Rotunda A | 11.90% | 0.23% | 7.09% | 3.66% | 63.16% | 11.67% | 2.29% |
| Mountjoy B | 11.63% | 2.33% | 6.05% | 3.26% | 63.72% | 10.23% | 2.79% |
| Mountjoy A | 11.43% | 2.29% | 5.71% | 5.14% | 55.14% | 18.00% | 2.29% |
| Arran Quay B | 11.09% | 1.36% | 6.23% | 1.95% | 72.18% | 6.03% | 1.17% |
| North Dock B | 10.39% | 1.40% | 4.89% | 3.84% | 60.09% | 15.20% | 4.19% |
| Cabra West C | 10.32% | 1.08% | 5.38% | 3.66% | 63.33% | 14.62% | 1.61% |
| Arran Quay A | 10.07% | 1.74% | 4.51% | 3.47% | 70.14% | 9.03% | 1.04% |
| Inns Quay A | 9.87% | 0.26% | 7.01% | 2.86% | 68.05% | 10.39% | 1.56% |
| Rotunda B | 9.52% | 2.38% | 4.76% | 0.00% | 69.05% | 9.52% | 4.76% |
| Inns Quay B | 9.27% | 1.07% | 6.77% | 3.03% | 62.92% | 13.73% | 3.21% |
| North Dock A | 8.68% | 2.43% | 4.86% | 2.43% | 73.26% | 6.94% | 1.39% |
| Ballybough B | 8.59% | 0.89% | 5.19% | 2.96% | 71.11% | 5.93% | 5.33% |
| Inns Quay C | 8.18% | 0.61% | 6.97% | 4.85% | 61.21% | 16.67% | 1.52% |
| North Dock C | 7.71% | 1.50% | 5.57% | 3.64% | 58.03% | 21.20% | 2.36% |
| Arran Quay C | 6.87% | 0.72% | 4.88% | 4.34% | 72.33% | 8.14% | 2.71% |
| Arran Quay E | 6.55% | 0.73% | 4.66% | 2.47% | 76.86% | 4.80% | 3.93% |
| Arran Quay D | 5.44% | 1.39% | 4.75% | 3.24% | 73.26% | 7.75% | 4.17% |
Casey fails to come close to his national vote in any of the Electoral Divisions (EDs) that make up the constituency, but there are marked differences in performance. However his highest vote being in the North City ED is somewhat misleading, as there were only 70 votes tallied for a 11% turnout in that area, which comprises most of the streets around the north inner city, the majority of which are given over to retail.
Of more interest, and maybe of more significance, are larger areas where Casey did well, such as most of Cabra and the small part of Drumcondra that is in Dublin Central. These are largely older areas with a higher owner occupancy rate when compared to the likes of the Arran Quay EDs, which comprise the areas around Arbor Hill and Stoneybatter, both areas with a large number of renters. This chimes somewhat with the below observation from Gavin Reilly:
However in looking at tally data from the two referendums, the results are less clear.
Louth:
As a mixed urban and rural constituency, Louth should allow for some interesting comparisons.
| Polling District | Casey | Duffy | Freeman | Gallagher | Higgins | Ní Riada |
| Killanny | 26.10% | 9.83% | 7.12% | 7.46% | 40.68% | 8.81% |
| Julianstown | 21.54% | 8.30% | 4.09% | 6.14% | 53.79% | 6.14% |
| Bush | 21.48% | 1.53% | 5.88% | 8.44% | 53.96% | 8.70% |
| Stabannon | 21.48% | 3.70% | 1.85% | 9.26% | 58.15% | 5.56% |
| Clermont Gate | 21.46% | 2.61% | 5.41% | 8.96% | 55.78% | 5.78% |
| Drakestown | 21.22% | 4.94% | 3.78% | 7.56% | 54.36% | 8.14% |
| Knockbridge | 20.30% | 3.38% | 7.89% | 10.90% | 51.50% | 6.02% |
| Tallanstown | 20.24% | 3.37% | 3.20% | 7.59% | 59.02% | 6.58% |
| Castlering | 19.91% | 3.24% | 4.63% | 6.94% | 59.03% | 6.25% |
| Sandpit | 19.78% | 6.90% | 5.41% | 5.41% | 58.02% | 4.48% |
| Collon | 19.64% | 4.17% | 7.14% | 6.94% | 53.57% | 8.53% |
| Mullary | 19.59% | 4.73% | 5.18% | 5.41% | 61.26% | 3.83% |
| Ardee Urban | 19.35% | 4.49% | 4.72% | 11.22% | 48.22% | 12.00% |
| Kilcurry | 18.98% | 4.86% | 3.94% | 4.63% | 56.02% | 11.57% |
| Willistown | 18.85% | 3.14% | 5.76% | 3.66% | 60.73% | 7.85% |
| Clonkeen | 18.47% | 4.05% | 6.76% | 9.91% | 53.60% | 7.21% |
| Dunleer | 17.66% | 4.14% | 3.59% | 8.28% | 58.76% | 7.59% |
| Darver | 17.53% | 3.45% | 5.46% | 7.76% | 61.21% | 4.60% |
| Termonfeckin | 17.42% | 8.71% | 4.06% | 4.93% | 58.64% | 6.24% |
| Fieldstown | 17.40% | 6.49% | 5.71% | 7.79% | 57.66% | 4.94% |
| Ardee Rural | 17.37% | 4.03% | 5.72% | 10.17% | 55.72% | 6.99% |
| Kilcurley | 17.09% | 6.93% | 4.16% | 7.39% | 53.35% | 11.09% |
| St Peters Drogheda | 17.09% | 7.57% | 6.41% | 6.99% | 51.84% | 10.10% |
| Kilsaran | 16.67% | 3.86% | 5.28% | 10.37% | 52.24% | 11.59% |
| Dundalk Central | 16.65% | 1.94% | 5.05% | 6.67% | 59.56% | 10.14% |
| Tullyallen | 16.44% | 6.33% | 3.78% | 7.31% | 56.03% | 10.11% |
| Rampark | 16.40% | 2.12% | 3.17% | 10.58% | 56.08% | 11.64% |
| Louth | 16.39% | 4.52% | 6.02% | 9.53% | 54.68% | 8.86% |
| St Marys | 16.38% | 5.60% | 5.57% | 4.60% | 61.96% | 5.89% |
| Dundalk East | 16.24% | 1.91% | 3.41% | 5.02% | 57.65% | 15.77% |
| Bellurgan | 16.21% | 1.92% | 3.57% | 11.81% | 55.77% | 10.71% |
| Walshestown | 16.15% | 6.54% | 3.46% | 7.31% | 64.62% | 1.92% |
| Ravensdale | 15.91% | 2.10% | 3.50% | 5.42% | 60.31% | 12.76% |
| Laurence Gate | 15.77% | 7.02% | 4.17% | 5.34% | 58.85% | 8.85% |
| Dromiskin | 15.60% | 3.67% | 5.24% | 6.55% | 58.98% | 9.96% |
| Philipstown | 15.43% | 5.25% | 7.41% | 8.33% | 52.47% | 11.11% |
| Monksland | 15.41% | 0.72% | 3.58% | 4.66% | 53.76% | 21.86% |
| Blackrock | 15.27% | 2.48% | 6.46% | 6.69% | 62.25% | 6.86% |
| Dysart | 14.76% | 5.90% | 4.43% | 5.54% | 61.25% | 8.12% |
| Dundalk West | 14.64% | 2.88% | 5.16% | 6.14% | 58.78% | 12.39% |
| Julianstown (Laytown/Bettystown) | 14.62% | 4.58% | 6.02% | 5.72% | 62.72% | 6.33% |
| Clogher | 14.60% | 6.91% | 4.87% | 7.38% | 56.20% | 10.05% |
| Duleek | 14.16% | 7.51% | 6.25% | 4.47% | 57.63% | 9.97% |
| Carlingford | 13.55% | 1.48% | 3.69% | 4.19% | 65.52% | 11.58% |
| West Gate | 13.14% | 6.96% | 3.99% | 4.96% | 60.44% | 10.51% |
| Faughart | 13.05% | 3.94% | 5.17% | 7.39% | 55.17% | 15.27% |
| Creggan Upper | 12.93% | 2.72% | 4.76% | 3.74% | 42.18% | 33.67% |
| Monasterboice | 12.77% | 4.26% | 6.74% | 7.80% | 62.77% | 5.67% |
| Baltray | 10.42% | 7.72% | 3.86% | 3.86% | 70.27% | 3.86% |
| Omeath | 9.89% | 2.26% | 4.24% | 10.17% | 58.19% | 15.25% |
| Greenore | 9.63% | 3.33% | 5.19% | 8.89% | 62.96% | 10.00% |
Here the story is a little more straightforward and largely mirrors the national trends, where Casey does well in some of the rural parts of Louth and fares slightly less well around Dundalk, Drogheda and on the Cooley peninsula. However he matches his own national vote in Julianstown, which lies between Drogheda and Balbriggan, and is very much part of the commuter belt. Due to my own time constraints and desire to get this out in a timely fashion, I’m going to forgo comparisons with the Marriage Equality and Repeal referendums for Louth.
Overall, the signs seem to indicate that support for Casey is part of a larger tradition of right wing and conservative ideology in Ireland, albeit without simple contours and points of departure. What is also increasingly clear is that the new rise in “populist” right wing candidates, who are categorised by the media as underdogs in a battle against political correctness, relies on the same support basis as the traditional right wing.
Ireland is not any different in that regard nor immune to the consequences of these trends, and complacency or equivocation will continue to allow the likes of Casey and others to do damage. Rather than attempt to find comfort in the insignificance of Casey’s vote, what the result implies about our politics should be confronted, in all of its forms.
*My thanks go to those who ran the tally in both constituencies.
